Análisis de escenarios sobre la evolución del coronavirus
Este aretículo ha sido escrito por Robert Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Research Economist, y Stephanie Kelly, economista política
Escenarios del Coronavirus
Los escenarios
- Las noticias sobre la difusión del coronavirus y las reacciones políticas están evolucionando todos los días. Los escenarios que hemos construido son un intento de vislumbrar cuales pueden ser los escenarios más probables estableciendo una serie de eventos claves y caminos.
- La tabla adjunta presenta los escenarios en orden, desde el más al menos benigno. El color indica la estimación de probabilidad desde la mayor (verde) a la menor (roja).
Impacto Económico
- La profundidad, amplitud y duración del contagio viral y las respuestas políticas hacen especialmente complicado estimar el impacto económico.
- Nuestro Research Institute ha esbozado unos amplios caminos para el creciemiento incorporando las complejas interacciones entre el comportamiento de los hogares y las empresas y la respuestas del gobierno (políticas fiscales y monetarias)
- Es importante resaltar que el escenario base para nuestras previsiones de crecimiento es el escenario verde (Forma de U): Virus no contenido: (i) profundo y extendido shock en forma de U (resumen en español debajo de estas líneas):
|
Escenario |
Definición del escenario |
Puntos de referencia |
Impacto económico |
Impacto de mercado |
|
Virus no contenido. Shock en forma de U |
|
|
|
FX: USDJPY = 104, DXY = 96, JP EM FX = 57 Government bonds: 75bps Credit: USD IG Index at spread of 250 before the BBB downgrades wash out and technically pull the spread tighter, high yield spread of 500bps Equities: MSCI Global 2000 |
Impacto en el Mercado
- Los escenarios no capturan la trayectoria que las distintas clases de activo pueden tomar, sin embargo, se centran en el resultado final. Las estimaciones no se refieren a una fecha concreta. En su lugar, las cifras de la tabla muestran lo que nuestros gestores esperan de que los activos incluyeran en el precio una vez que los escenarios se definan claramente, independientemente del tiempo que tardemos en llegar a alguno de ellos.
- Teniendo en cuenta la amplia trayectoria para cada activo, esperamos una volatilidad sustancial en las próximas semanas y meses antes de que la crisis se resuelva. El grado de volatilidad dependerá naturalmente de la difusión del virus, las políticas monetarias y fiscales y la atención mediática.
Escenarios del Coronavirus:
Nota: la tabla presenta los escenarios en orden del más benigno al menos; los colores indican la probabilidad estimada desde la mayor (verde) al menor (rojo); El impacto del mercado (“market impacts”) sería una vez el escenario se mostrase claramente y relativo al precio actual en los mercados.
|
Scenario |
Scenario definition |
Waymarks |
Economic impacts |
Market impacts |
|
Coronavirus is contained: (i) “V”-shaped rapid economic rebound |
Coronavirus primarily in China (does not spread any further internationally, fears EZ/US outbreaks recede). Travel & tourism recovers in APAC relatively quickly, only very small and short-lived effect rest of World. Resilient global supply chains. Q1 'pothole' in Chinese growth, but very rapid whole economy rebound, which delivers sharp “V”-shaped recovery. Aggressive monetary and fiscal policy response in China in Q1. Global spillover modest, reflecting: rapid recovery in China and 'insurance easing' in the West (both fiscal & monetary). Federal Reserve cuts again after 50bp emergency easing. |
New coronavirus case numbers fall close to zero by mid-March (both in China and globally). WHO and national bodies report success of containment policies by late-March. Intra-Asia travel & tourism starts recovering in mid-March. Firms quickly remove restrictions on international travel. Manufacturing PMIs and official IP & trade data in Asia and EZ hold up better than expected. Inventory sub-indices little changed. Little evidence of an impact in the US. Daily activity in China recovers quickly to seasonal norms. |
Q1 Chinese growth falls to 0% q/q, but has a very strong growth recovery in Q2/Q3, largely catching up pre-corona trend. Annual growth of: 4.9% 2020 and 5.6% in 2021. Relatively modest drags on US and EZ economies in Q1. EZ avoids Q1 contraction. Global growth weak in Q1, but catches up Q2/Q3. Policy pushes GDP above trend early ‘21. |
FX: USDJPY = 111, DXY = 99, JP EM FX = 62 Government bonds: 10year treasuries move to 150bps Credit: USD IG index spread moves to 110bps Equities: MSCI Global at 2500 |
|
Coronavirus is contained: (ii) “U”-shaped economic rebound |
Moderate outbreaks in US and EZ which weighs on growth, but restrictions needed are mild (compared to China). Weak global growth in H1, followed by a reasonably speedy recovery back to pre-corona trend (some countries trough in Q1, others in Q2). Travel & tourism in Asia remains low after initial shock, but travel in other regions is less impacted. Global spillover moderate. APAC impacted by trade, travel and financial conditions channels, but effect in the West is somewhat smaller (reflecting scale case numbers). Differentiated response by sector: more rapid recovery in manufacturing, slower recovery in services. Monetary policy supportive from major central banks (Fed cuts again), fiscal policy response from most affected (China aggressive). |
New coronavirus case numbers fall close to zero by mid-March in China, global new cases fall rapidly at end-March. WHO and national bodies report success of containment policies by mid-March. Firms cut "non-essential" travel until end-March. Tourism recovers slightly later. Manufacturing data is very poor from Feb to March: Manufacturing PMIs fall sharply in February across APAC, but recover at moderate pace after March. Inventory sub-indices rise notably, but few signs of supply chain disruption (macro-level). Services/consumption data are weak from Feb to April/May as consumer behaviour takes longer to recover to norms. |
Q1 Chinese growth of -0.75% q/q, with only a modest Q2 recovery, reflecting drags from US/EZ. Annual growth rate of 3.7% 2020. EZ GDP contracts in Q1 (and possibly Q2), US GDP may trough in Q2 . Global GDP growth weak in H2, but growth recovers in H2. Global GDP growth ~2% 2020. Global GDP catches up with pre-corona trend in H1 2021. |
FX: USDJPY = 109, DXY = 98, JP EM FX = 60 Government bonds: 10year treasuries move to 135bps Credit: USD IG index spread moves to 110bps Equities: MSCI Global at 2300 |
|
Coronavirus is contained: (iii) but supply is damaged, “Ⴑ”-shaped shock (aka “reverse J”) |
Some further spread to US and Europe: strong restrictions are imposed which limit severity of outbreak, but increase the drag on the economies. Most economies avoid recession, but measures taken by governments and firms to reduce probability and limit damage from future pandemics depress potential growth, limiting the growth recovery. Policy reaction by major central banks and fiscal response supports growth. |
Global travel & tourism falls sharply as governments and firms impose travel restrictions. WHO reports success of containment policies by end-March. Individuals feel heightened fear of travel and social contact even as news begins to improve. Concerns linger after virus abates. Services recover more slowly than manufacturing. Supply chain disruption leads to de-globalisation of manufacturing. Political actors use the example to underscore need for greater restrictions on cross-border travel and migration. |
US and EZ economies suffer in H1 . Shock spills over to APAC, delaying recovery. Global GDP growth very weak in H1, but growth recovers somewhat in H2. Global GDP does not catch up with pre-corona trend. (GDP 1-2% below trend by 2022). |
FX: USDJPY = 108, DXY = 97, JP EM FX = 59 Government bonds: 10year treasuries at 1% Credit: USD IG index spread at 150bps, high yield credit stressed Equities: MSCI Global at 2200 |
|
Uncontained virus: (i) deep & extended "U"-shaped shock. |
Coronavirus spreads widely within major economic blocks (perhaps similar manner to China, containment slow). Global economy avoids a technical recession, but some major economies are in recession. World struggles to regain momentum. Global manufacturing goes into recession, severely affected by global supply chain disruption. Major consumption shock. Coordinated policy reaction by central banks and aggressive fiscal response helps growth to recover in Q4 and beyond. |
Global cases increase rapidly, perhaps moving in stages between major economies; WHO call global pandemic. Global travel & tourism falls very sharply as governments and firms impose travel restrictions. Sharp falls in global PMIs and regional trade, followed by prolonged weakness over much of 2020. Negative feedback loops from financial market channels (FX, credit & liquidity) amplify the initial shock, but then recede. |
Major global shock, but cycle-ending recession is avoided. Global Q1 growth very low (but positive), Q2 growth negative (EZ in recession), Q3 global growth low (but positive) as world struggles to regain momentum. Global growth ~1% in 2020. GDP almost returns to pre-corona trend by end-2022. |
FX: USDJPY = 104, DXY = 96, JP EM FX = 57 Government bonds: 75bps Credit: USD IG Index at spread of 250 before the BBB downgrades wash out and technically pull the spread tighter, high yield spread of 500bps Equities: MSCI Global 2000 |
|
Uncontained virus: (ii) global recession, with supply damage limiting recovery . Deep “Ⴑ”-shaped shock . |
Coronavirus spreads widely within major economic blocks (larger scale than China). Global recession spanning Q2-Q3. Lacklustre recovery. Global manufacturing goes into recession, severely affected by global supply chain disruption. Major consumption shock. Measures taken by governments and firms to reduce probability and limit damage from future pandemics depress potential growth. Recession further depresses potential growth. Global policy struggles to gain traction. Debt sustainability concerns limit fiscal response. Central banks hampered by zero lower bound. |
Global cases increase rapidly, moving in stages between major economies. WHO call global pandemic. Global travel & tourism grinds to a halt. Supply chains break; industries announce severe challenges. Major supply chain reorganisation. Global manufacturing goes into recession; sharp falls in PMIs , followed by stagnation and eventual recovery below prior averages. Individuals feel heightened fear of travel and social contact even after virus abates. Political actors use the example to underscore need for greater restrictions on cross-border travel and migration. Negative feedback loops from financial market channels (FX, credit & liquidity) amplify shock; defaults rise quickly. |
Global recession is end-cycle shock. Possible Financial Stability events, particularly for economies and sectors with biggest imbalances. Potential growth is depressed by (i) measures to protect against future pandemics, and (ii) fragilities revealed by the global recession. (GDP 3-4% below pre-corona trend by 2022). |
FX: USDJPY = 95, DXY = 102, JP EM FX = 53 Government bonds: 0bps Credit: USD IG Index spread to 350bps, huge downgrades in BBB space, high yield majorly stressed (1000bps over) Equities: MSCI Global 1600 |
Autor
Equipo de analistas de Abrdn
Aberdeen Standard Investments
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